Federer vs. Monfils

Oooooh, this is so tempting. My palm is itching to lay some ducats down on Gael Monfils at +400. He's pure silk on the clay, he moves better that any player on tour, and he's in his own hometown playing in front of the partisan Parisiens. Not to mention he beat Fed in their last meeting (last year's Paris Masters).

But this is Roger Federer. This is Roger Federer flying as far under the radar as you'll ever find him at a Grand Slam. All eyes are on Rafa and Djokovic, leaving Fed to ply his trade without all the pressure he's faced in the past.

Some say Roger is on the decline at age 29. He's slipped to No. 3 in the world, he's already dropped some clay-court matches this year to some questionable opponents (Meltzer? Gasquet?). The Maestro has been in fine form since arriving in Paris this year, but I have to think the price in this one favors Monfils. If you remove the names, you have No. 3 in the world vs. No. 9. If you look at it that way, +400 for Monfils is pretty tempting indeed...

French Open Doesn't Like Gambling

Here's some bad news for all of us. Seems as though the French Tennis Federation is suing a few online betting companies in an attempt to make them stop taking bets on the French Open. It's kind of silly of them to think the bookies are the ones making tennis look bad with things like the Davydenko scandal and the three Italian pros who were betting on matches. As the guy says in the story, the sportsbooks are the ones that tip the tennis federations off to potential betting irregularities. When will these people stop treating gambling companies like crack dealers and actually start working with them?

I'm Back ... With Fed Cup Bets

My appologies for letting this blog go a couple of weeks without updates. I was away for a bit and, to be honest, it's kind of hard to keep track of all the disparate tournaments going on right now. But I'm going to make a concerted effort to get a couple of picks up here on a regular basis. It won't be as extensive as during the Grand Slams, but I will be posting whenever I see some value.

One match jumped out at me today. Na Li vs. Alize Cornet in the Fed Cup. Cornet is a star on the rise in the WTA and at 18, I expect big things from her this year. Li is coming off a rib injury that kept her off the tour for six months. That didn't seem to affect her much when she won the Gold Coast last month, but she didn't face anyone too tough in that tournament. Cornet has the talent to challenge the second teir of women (which Li is) so I'll take her at +350. That looks like gold to me.

In other Fed Cup action, I also like Shahar Peer as a small favorite (-150) to beat Dinara Safina. The underdog might seem like the obvious pick since Safina has beaten Peer in three of their four career meetings, but this is the first time Isreal has gone this far in the World Cup, so Peer will be motivated against a country that is notoriously apathetic about international events.

Betty or Veronica?

As that guy from the A-Team used to say, I love it when a plan comes together. Remember when I told you Djokovic would toss Federer from the Aussie Open like a bouncer at a dive bar? Remember when I told you to take the +200 odds on the young buck? Man, it feels good to be right once in a while. Excuse me while I gloat.

Djoko didn't just win it; he dispensed with the world No. 1 in straight sets. Now it's Djokovic and Tsonga in the final with Nole going for a very affordable -300 and Tsonga at +240. I'll get you my pick on that one later in the day, but I'm sure you know where I'm leaning.

Right now we have to focus on the women's final. And to be honest, this matchup makes it a little difficult to focus. Let me just say thank you to the WTA for presenting us with the best pairing of females since Heather Graham and Bridget Moynahan hooked up in the otherwise forgettable movie, Gray Matters. But the real question bettors have to ask themselves in this match is not who's got the better game, or which player is in superior condition. The question is simply: Betty or Veronica?

Ana Ivanovic (+350) to beat Maria Sharapova ... In the epic struggle of blonde vs. brunette, I have to go with tall, dark and Serbian (I'm a Veronica kinda guy). This pick, however, comes with a disclaimer. Bettor be warned: these odds are totally out of whack. Are you telling me that in the men's draw, the three-seed is only -300 against some unseeded dude, but in the women's side the world No. 3 is more than a 1-3 underdog against a lower-ranked opponent? Come on. This is a clear-cut case of blatant brunette-ism. I know Ana looked bad in her semi, but she can play better and, if nothing else, at least it showed some heart. Sharapova has cruised through the tournament, it's true. But it looked like nerves got to her in her semi against an injured Jankovic and that makes me nervous, especially at this price. In a pressure-packed environment like this, I wouldn't be surprised to see Maria crack while her father stews in the stands. Under more reasonable pricing circumstances, I'd probably go with Maria here, but just because oddsmakers are being so ludicrous with these odds, I'm going to have to take the value and the brunette.

Dog City Daily

I almost forgot what a winning day felt like. My crossbreed parlays actually paid off, but not before I nearly had a grand mal seizure watching Cincinnati fall apart like an arctic glacial shelf, but thankfully they hung on to cover. If you didn't hear, I didn't want to pay the asking price for Sharapova and Ivanovic, so I parlayed those matches with college hoops games -- and amazingly, it worked out for a nice profit.

In other shocking news, Melbourne became Dog City again when Tsonga smoked Rafa to get into the final. I've been wrong about a lot of things over the fortnight, but I had a sneaking feeling Nadal was overpriced at -500. Hope everyone avoided that trap.

Now the schedule is clear for the match of the tournament when Federer and Djokovic get it on at Rod Laver Arena. Djokovic is still my pick and I like him even more now that his price has improved to +220. My book doesn't offer over/under on games played but the over on that might be a good play if you can get it. If last night proved anything, it's that underdogs are always live at this point in the tournament.

But whatever happens in this match, it should be worth staying up for. Enjoy.

Who you like?

Hey everybody. I've been putting up the odds for the day's matches in the form of a daily poll. I think this could be a quick, easy way of getting some consensus on picks, which could help us all with our bets. Please take a second to vote for your play o' the day and check the results. You can pick more than one if you want. Thanks.

The Slump-Buster

Here are last night’s results from Melbourne.

I looked up the word “irony” just to make sure I was right about this and it turns out that it is, in fact, ironic (but not in the Alanis Morissette sense) that my "oppo" picks from yesterday went 0-3 and if I just stuck to my guns, I would have had a huge day.

But that’s okay. The oppo pick is a tried and true method of regaining betting confidence. You see, if the picks turned out to be winners, I would have taken credit for them and felt good about myself. But even though they were wrong (and I lost a pile of cash because I actually put money on all my picks), I still feel good because my real selections were the right ones.

It’s sorta like the old slump-buster that has cured so many baseball players of their struggles at the plate throughout the years. It's not something you want to brag about but it works. I feel good. We’re in the semis, my confidence is back and I’m ready to make money again.

Here's the goods:

Maria Sharapova (-455) to beat Jelena Jankovic ... This is a steep price to pay for any player in the semifinals of a Grand Slam, but if you saw the way Sharapova made the best player in the world (Henin) look like a toddler in a haunted house, you know she's taking a trophy home with her from Melbourne. Too much power, precision and focus for Jankovic. I'd be surprised if Maria gave up a set.

Ana Ivanovic (-400) to beat Daniela Hantuchova ... Again, I don't like the price but I can't go against the new and improved Ana. She dropped the baby fat and she showed in her match against Venus that she's fit enough to win points in long rallies now. That and the best forehand in the game will be enough to send Hantuchova packing.

Rafael Nadal (-500) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+300) ... I wouldn't bet this one with someone else's money. I like Tsonga. He is a rising star and he's playing right into the role of Cinderella that has taken so many underdogs (Gonzo, Bagdhatis, Johansson) to the Aussie Open final. That's why he's dangerous. But don't forget who he's facing here. As Youzhny said after losing to Tsonga, "I think Tsonga can play very well. I cannot say he can beat Nadal, no, but he has chances." That's why I'm staying away from this one.

Novak Djokovic (+200) to beat Roger Federer ... If you don't think it can happen, just watch this. Djokovic has only beaten Fed once in his career but he has the power, the athleticism and the court savvy to go toe-to-toe with the world No. 1 and win. It won't be easy, Federer isn't going to give anything away, but see a slight decline in Roger's game. It's tough to stay on top as long as he has and I don't see the same killer instinct in him that he used to have. I think both players are on equal footing in terms of ability, so this will come down to a battle of wills. Call me crazy, but I'll take Novak in that case.