Betty or Veronica?

As that guy from the A-Team used to say, I love it when a plan comes together. Remember when I told you Djokovic would toss Federer from the Aussie Open like a bouncer at a dive bar? Remember when I told you to take the +200 odds on the young buck? Man, it feels good to be right once in a while. Excuse me while I gloat.

Djoko didn't just win it; he dispensed with the world No. 1 in straight sets. Now it's Djokovic and Tsonga in the final with Nole going for a very affordable -300 and Tsonga at +240. I'll get you my pick on that one later in the day, but I'm sure you know where I'm leaning.

Right now we have to focus on the women's final. And to be honest, this matchup makes it a little difficult to focus. Let me just say thank you to the WTA for presenting us with the best pairing of females since Heather Graham and Bridget Moynahan hooked up in the otherwise forgettable movie, Gray Matters. But the real question bettors have to ask themselves in this match is not who's got the better game, or which player is in superior condition. The question is simply: Betty or Veronica?

Ana Ivanovic (+350) to beat Maria Sharapova ... In the epic struggle of blonde vs. brunette, I have to go with tall, dark and Serbian (I'm a Veronica kinda guy). This pick, however, comes with a disclaimer. Bettor be warned: these odds are totally out of whack. Are you telling me that in the men's draw, the three-seed is only -300 against some unseeded dude, but in the women's side the world No. 3 is more than a 1-3 underdog against a lower-ranked opponent? Come on. This is a clear-cut case of blatant brunette-ism. I know Ana looked bad in her semi, but she can play better and, if nothing else, at least it showed some heart. Sharapova has cruised through the tournament, it's true. But it looked like nerves got to her in her semi against an injured Jankovic and that makes me nervous, especially at this price. In a pressure-packed environment like this, I wouldn't be surprised to see Maria crack while her father stews in the stands. Under more reasonable pricing circumstances, I'd probably go with Maria here, but just because oddsmakers are being so ludicrous with these odds, I'm going to have to take the value and the brunette.

Dog City Daily

I almost forgot what a winning day felt like. My crossbreed parlays actually paid off, but not before I nearly had a grand mal seizure watching Cincinnati fall apart like an arctic glacial shelf, but thankfully they hung on to cover. If you didn't hear, I didn't want to pay the asking price for Sharapova and Ivanovic, so I parlayed those matches with college hoops games -- and amazingly, it worked out for a nice profit.

In other shocking news, Melbourne became Dog City again when Tsonga smoked Rafa to get into the final. I've been wrong about a lot of things over the fortnight, but I had a sneaking feeling Nadal was overpriced at -500. Hope everyone avoided that trap.

Now the schedule is clear for the match of the tournament when Federer and Djokovic get it on at Rod Laver Arena. Djokovic is still my pick and I like him even more now that his price has improved to +220. My book doesn't offer over/under on games played but the over on that might be a good play if you can get it. If last night proved anything, it's that underdogs are always live at this point in the tournament.

But whatever happens in this match, it should be worth staying up for. Enjoy.

Who you like?

Hey everybody. I've been putting up the odds for the day's matches in the form of a daily poll. I think this could be a quick, easy way of getting some consensus on picks, which could help us all with our bets. Please take a second to vote for your play o' the day and check the results. You can pick more than one if you want. Thanks.

The Slump-Buster

Here are last night’s results from Melbourne.

I looked up the word “irony” just to make sure I was right about this and it turns out that it is, in fact, ironic (but not in the Alanis Morissette sense) that my "oppo" picks from yesterday went 0-3 and if I just stuck to my guns, I would have had a huge day.

But that’s okay. The oppo pick is a tried and true method of regaining betting confidence. You see, if the picks turned out to be winners, I would have taken credit for them and felt good about myself. But even though they were wrong (and I lost a pile of cash because I actually put money on all my picks), I still feel good because my real selections were the right ones.

It’s sorta like the old slump-buster that has cured so many baseball players of their struggles at the plate throughout the years. It's not something you want to brag about but it works. I feel good. We’re in the semis, my confidence is back and I’m ready to make money again.

Here's the goods:

Maria Sharapova (-455) to beat Jelena Jankovic ... This is a steep price to pay for any player in the semifinals of a Grand Slam, but if you saw the way Sharapova made the best player in the world (Henin) look like a toddler in a haunted house, you know she's taking a trophy home with her from Melbourne. Too much power, precision and focus for Jankovic. I'd be surprised if Maria gave up a set.

Ana Ivanovic (-400) to beat Daniela Hantuchova ... Again, I don't like the price but I can't go against the new and improved Ana. She dropped the baby fat and she showed in her match against Venus that she's fit enough to win points in long rallies now. That and the best forehand in the game will be enough to send Hantuchova packing.

Rafael Nadal (-500) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+300) ... I wouldn't bet this one with someone else's money. I like Tsonga. He is a rising star and he's playing right into the role of Cinderella that has taken so many underdogs (Gonzo, Bagdhatis, Johansson) to the Aussie Open final. That's why he's dangerous. But don't forget who he's facing here. As Youzhny said after losing to Tsonga, "I think Tsonga can play very well. I cannot say he can beat Nadal, no, but he has chances." That's why I'm staying away from this one.

Novak Djokovic (+200) to beat Roger Federer ... If you don't think it can happen, just watch this. Djokovic has only beaten Fed once in his career but he has the power, the athleticism and the court savvy to go toe-to-toe with the world No. 1 and win. It won't be easy, Federer isn't going to give anything away, but see a slight decline in Roger's game. It's tough to stay on top as long as he has and I don't see the same killer instinct in him that he used to have. I think both players are on equal footing in terms of ability, so this will come down to a battle of wills. Call me crazy, but I'll take Novak in that case.

Ana out for "revenge" against Venus

I really like this quote from Ana Ivanovic. It shows what kind of self-confidence she has going into the match against Venus. I like it. So much of the game is mental and when a young player like Ana goes into a match against a great player saying she's out to get revenge, that tells you her head is going to be in the right place.

"She's definitely a tough opponent," Ivanovic said. "Last two grand slams I lost to her. Exactly the time for some revenge. I think I'm a little bit of a different player. I've got fitter and stronger on the court.

"And also these courts are a little bit slower than US Open, so I think that's something that definitely suits me better because she's a big server and she likes to go for the big shots."

Here's the link to the full story.

Going Oppo

I am a stunning 2-8 over the last four days. That is horrendous. I realize it’s partly because I’ve been betting with all the savvy of a kindergarten teacher, but I can’t help feeling that the betting gods are sitting atop their perch in a Vegas penthouse, lobbing thunderbolts at me as they laugh their asses off and exchange high-fives.

In a situation like this there’s only one thing to do. You have to go with the old George Costanza philosophy. Obviously every instinct I've had in this tournament has been wrong, so like George did in that famous episode, I'm going to do the exact opposite of whatever I think I should do. So here they are, my Day 10 Bizzaro Picks:

Agnieszka Radwanska (-110) to beat Daniela Hantuchova … How can a 29-seed be even-money with a the ninth-seeded player in the draw? Radwanska’s straight-sets victory over Kuznetsova was impressive, but Kuz didn’t really look like herself. If I were Hantuchova, I’d feel a little disrespected by these odds, especially against an 18-year old kid with one career title to her name. In my opinion, Hantuchova is the play here, so that’s exactly why I’m going with Radwanska. See the logic here?

Venus Williams (-180) to beat Ana Ivonovic … This is really hard for me to do. I love Ivo here because she is one of those young players who has limitless potential as she matures and trains. Venus has looked shaky through the whole tournament. Even though she hasn’t lost a set, she has had some close ones against some players who aren’t fit to tie her shoelaces. Costanza rules say for these reasons, I bet on Venus.

David Ferrer (+200) to beat Novak Djokovic … Simply put, Djokovic is my pick to win this tournament. He’s a funny kind of player. Doesn’t seem to be incredibly strong in any one aspect of his game but his patience is his biggest asset. He seems to go to a tie-break in every set he plays and he always wins them. It’s uncanny. Ferrer plays a bit the same way, but the Joker has had better results in Slams. So do yourself a favor and go with the underdog.

Dee-Dub's Dubious Picks: Day 8

Another bad day Down Under for Dee-Dub's Dubious Picks. Kohlschreiber was obviously worn out after battling Roddick the day before and lost a tough one to a guy who looks more like an alien from Star Trek than a pro tennis player. And it turns out my first instincts were right in the Battle of Russians -- Youzhny dusted off Davydenko easily. Too bad I talked myself out of it and ate the chalk. Luckily I bet the bank on Serena. She destroyed Vaidisova as the young Russian seemed preoccupied with checking herself out on the big screen in Vodafone Arena.

So that's the third straight losing day for my picks. But I just gotta shake it off and keep on betting while there's still money in the bank. I'll keep it brief today because I have football to watch. I'm taking Cilic (+125) to upset a tired Blake with a small bet and I'm going to go big on Justine Henin (-189) to roll over Sharapova. I feel pretty good about these plays, but then again, what do I know?

But more importantly, I like the Patriots -14 and the Packers -7.

Come On? Are you serious?

This has got to be among the stranger legal issues I've heard of lately.

As I was watching the Hewitt-Baghdatis match this morning, I thought I heard the commentator (I don't remember who it was, Fowler maybe?) mention that Lleyton Hewitt had gotten a legal trademark on the phrase "Come on".

Can you really do that? Trademark an expression? Is he gonna start demanding royalties from other players who use it on the court?

So I looked it up and the whole thing is totally confusing. It all revolves around that funny victory salute that Hewitt likes to do when he sorta points at his face with his hand and yells, "come on!" Apparently some old Swedish player claims to have invented it and says he already has a trademark on it, but Hewitt stole it for his new clothing line (which sounds like it's going to be even more lame than the Yonnex gear he wears now).

Anyway, the whole convoluted story is explained here, if you're interested. The logo for Hewitt's clothing line is posted top right.

Australian Gold: Day 7 Picks

The rain was falling in Melbourne yesterday, so the only matches played were those scheduled for covered Rod Laver and Vodafone Arenas. But what a day of tennis. Classic match after classic match. Probably the best day of tennis I've ever seen.

Federer very nearly sent the betting economy into a recession when +5000 underdog Janko Tipsarevic took him to 10 games in the fifth set. If the upset happened, Tipsarevic's new nickname would have been "Appalachian State." Blake was lucky he woke up in the third set of his match and miraculously beat Grosjean in the end. I don’t know if I’d bet Blake in his next match against Cilic (who upset Gonzo ... why oh why didn’t I bet that?) because that five-setter must have taken its toll and Cilic is a dangerous young man. Then there was the match I had money on between Baghdatis and Hewitt, which went back and forth until about 5 a.m. before Bags finally ran out of gas and cost me some coin. But you know what? It was such a good match, I can’t even feel bad about losing the money.

That 4-0 day seems long ago and far away now. I’m 5-3 for the tournament overall, but the odds are looking better today and I’m feeling confident about today’s plays. Nalbandian and Ferrero didn’t get their match in due to rain and neither did Petrova-Makarova, so they’re both scheduled to go tonight.

Let's get down to business:

Serena Williams (-280) to beat Nicole Vaidisova … I LOVE this play. This is a classic example of the crème de la crème of women’s tennis playing a second-tier contender. Vaidisova is good and she went deep in every slam last year, but she lost all three meetings with Serena. Why? Because Serena is just that much better. Nothing has changed since last year, except that Serena is in better shape and seems to be more focused. I emptied my account on this one.

Philipp Kohlschreiber (-175) to beat Jarkko Nieminen … I’d never seen Kohlschreiber before yesterday, but his win over Roddick was all I needed to see. I’m sold. This kid is a stone-cold killer. Roddick played a great match, served as well as he ever has and still lost as a BIG favorite. That match got a lot of publicity and definitely pumped up the price for his match with Nieminen, but I’ll gladly take him as a small favorite over a guy like Nieminen who doesn’t have nearly as many weapons as Roddick. I feel good about this one too.

Nikolay Davydenko (-175) to beat Mikhail Youzhny … I really wanted to go against my rule here and take the underdog, but the more I looked at it, the more I realized this was a great price for Davydenko. I liked Youzhny because he’s undefeated this year and won the Channai Open a couple of weeks ago by steamrolling none other than Rafa Nadal in the final. But in three previous meetings, Davydenko has won every time, most recently in Montreal last year. Nothing has changed since then. Davydenko is No. 4 in the world and only a year older than Youzhny. I won’t put as much down on this one than the other plays, but it does seem to be excellent value for the circumstances.

The Best Match Ever?

Man, am I ever glad I have a TV on my desk at work. Did anyone else catch that Roddick-Kohlschreiber match this morning? Amazing. I thought Cliff Drysdale was going to bust a nut right there in the broadcast booth, he was so geeked up about this match. He actually said it might have been the best match he'd ever seen. And that dude's seen some tennis. Kohlschreiber pulled off the massive upset (I think he was like +400) but I really wish he hadn't because the notoriety from this match will ruin the value you might have gotten on this guy in the future. From what I saw today, he's the real deal. Some of the shots he pulled off were abousolutely insane. And he's got an arsenal. Forehand, backhand, slice, dropshots, good service game ... no weakness I could see. Remember the name. He could beat anyone on the tour if he continues playing at that level.

Roddick also gets the award for meltdown of the day. He complained to the umpire that some German fans were heckling him during his serve, but the umpire said he didn't hear anything. That's when Roddick went all McEnroe and started calling the guy every name in the book. He got a couple of zingers in, saying at one point, "I guess you have to be a second grade dropout to be an umpire." Surprisingly, it didn't seem to throw Rowdy Roddy off his game. He kept booming ace after ace, but against a flawless Kohlschreiber, it wasn't enough to win the match. I don't know if he was really mad at the umpire or he was just frustrated that he couldn't shake off the young German. I'm sure Kohlschreiber will be driving plenty of other players for a long time.

The New Mantra: Small Favorites

Ouch. That was a tough night. But this blog is still young and your pal Dee-Dub still has a few things to learn. Yesterday's lesson was: "Don't get cocky and start taking underdogs in the early rounds." Especially not after you made a tidy profit on small favorites the day before. Dumbass.

In my defense, I'm not taking the blame for that Fish-Nieminen match. Fish was looking good until he got a ridiculous code violation from a retarded umpire in the second set and then went into a five-alarm meltdown. Smashing rackets, screaming at umpires, completely losing his cool. And the match. Just one of those things. My pick for Peer to beat Dementieva, however, was obviously misguided and way off the mark. Peer was never in the match and she just folded like a lawn chair from the start. She won only two games in the whole match and had nearly three times as many unforced errors as winners. Brutal. What was I thinking?

My mantra for today is "small favorites". Close your eyes. Say it with me. Believe it. It is your salvation. Ohm.

Just one problem. Small faves are few and far between in tonight's draw. But we'll make the best of what we've got to work with.

Marcos Baghdatis (-162) to beat Lleyton Hewitt ... In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I was thinking Hewitt when I first saw these odds yesterday, but after yesterday's hard lesson, I have to keep saying the mantra. You gotta think like a bookie here. These are pretty similar players, only a few places difference in their ATP rankings, and aside from one previous meeting that Bags won at Wimbledon in 2006, I'd say they're about equal. Yet Hewitt, a national hero, is the underdog in his own country? They're begging you to take Hewitt. Don't fall into the trap. Rock, Chalk, Cypriot!

David Nalbandian (-260) to beat Juan Carlos Ferrero ... For a guy who's playing an opponent who beat him the last two times they met, I'd expect a nicer price on Nalbandian, but whatever. I'll still take him. It won't be a walkover by any means, but the way El Rey played at the end of last year, you've got to go with him against Ferrero. Since hooking up with his new coach, Nalbandian's serve (which was always the chink in his armor) has been waaaay better. If he could beat Federer, Djokovic and Nadal at the end of last season, I think he should be able to knock out Ferrero here.

I wish I could make more picks for all y'all (who am I kidding? Nobody's reading this) but if I follow the new rule, I can't take the youngster Miran Cilic at +200 to beat Gonzo and I can't stick with Makarova to surprise Petrova (+300) even though I'm tempted to. Sorry. Rules are rules.

Aussie Open Picks: Day 5

Toot, toot! What's that? Oh, it's just me leaning on my own horn.

The results are in and yesterday's picks went 4-0, but I'm not going to lie ... I was sweating it out through most of them. All three men's matches went five sets and we were treated to a beauty in the showcase between the Bagman and Safin. The Russian made a strong bid to make good on the first 0-2 comeback of his career, but in the fifth set, he didn't have the guts to finish the job. As usual. But a good match to watch nonetheless.

I still don't know what Baghdatis did to piss off the tournament organizers who saddled him with the worst draw of all time. After facing two former champs in the first two rounds, he's got hometown hero Lleyton Hewitt tomorrow. That's a hard road and it will probably start to take its toll on the portly Cypriot very soon.

Back to the picks. I took all favorites yesterday so to be honest, a few bad bounces and it could have been a disaster. But all's well that ends well and we've got some house money to play with -- which is a good thing because today's odds aren't exactly turning my crank.

Here we go:

Shahar Peer (+120) to beat Elena Dementieva ... Yes, it's true. I am actually taking an underdog. I don't know what the oddsmakers' deal is with Peer, but she is consistently undervalued in her matches. Doesn't anyone in Vegas realize this woman is one of the best players in the world? She beat Dementieva in straight sets in their last meeting, granted it was on clay, but in my mind it signaled the changing of the guard between these two. At 20 years old, Peer is on the way up and for Dementieva, the slow decline isn't far off. Now let's say I was at a bar looking for a little company for the evening, I'd take Dementieva in a second, but in this match I'll go with Peer.

Mikhail Youzhny (-225) to beat Ivo Karlovic ... I'm sick and tired of hearing all the experts talking about how "Dr. Ivo" is going to shock the world and tear through the field. Yes, he cuts an imposing figure at 6-foot-10 and he's got a big serve, but every time he comes to a Grand Slam event, he shits the bed. In the last three years, Karlovic never gone past the third round in a Slam and on grass or hardcourt, this is the first time he hasn't bowed out after his opening match. Until this freakshow proves otherwise, I'm staying away from him in the majors. Youzhny is coming off a title in Chennai where he beat Nadal 6-0, 6-1 in the final. You can't ignore that.

Mardy Fish (+100) to beat Jarkko Nieminen ... I was impressed with the way Fish dusted off Tommy Robredo in the second round in a match that was over so fast, you could have missed a set if you got up to make a sandwich. The American is hot, just like he was when he fought his way to the quarters of this tournament last year. Nieminen has also been dangerous lately and it's tough to go against him, but Fish seems to like playing in Melbourne and his big serve is amplified on this super-fast surface. But I'm expecting to sweat this one out too.

More Aussie Picks

Over at the bettor's mecca that is Covers.com, Jon Campbell has posted his picks for the day. Good to see he agrees with me on most of them. In other news, Duke is going to lose to Florida State again tonight...

Float like a butterfly...

Is it just me or does Jo-Wilfried Tsonga look a lot like Muhamad Ali?

The young Frenchman upset Andy Murray in the first round and suddenly bookies are scrambling to adjust their tournament odds. Tsonga is now 80-1.

Day 4 Aussie Open Odds

It's slim pickings in these early rounds for odds that are actually playable. It's mostly mismatches on the courts right now, which gives you odds like Djokovic (-10000) vs. Simone Bolelli (+1400). But there are a few affordable options out there and a parlay might not be a bad idea. The highlight of the day is definitely the night match between Safin and Baghdatis.

Here's what I like:

Vincent Spadea (-300) to beat Denis Gremelmayr ... I don't know if Vinnie forgot to eat his Wheaties yesterday morning, but he looked like he was on his way to getting smoked by Stepanek before he stormed back and took the final three sets. Impressive display. The only worry is that he'll be tired after the five-setter but Gremelmayr isn't anywhere near Stepanek's quality and Spadea should cruise.

Sebastien Grosjean (-175) to beat Robin Haase ... There's been a lot of hype about the young Dutchman who beat Ljubicic in the first round. He's 20 years old, but he got a late start on the circuit so he's more junior than you'd think. The meida loves this kid and I feel like the books are begging us to take the youngster here, but at this price I have to go with the veteran who's played some of his best tennis in Melbourne in the past.

Ekaterina Makarova (-138) to beat Yvonne Meusburger ... I don't know much about Makarova but she beat a serious young talent in Szavay in the first round. As far as I can tell, she made it to the third round of the U.S. Open last fall before losing to Henin. Not bad for a 19-year-old in her first slam. For that reason, I'll take her at a bargain price against an unremarkable second-round opponent.

Marcos Baghdatis (-175) to beat Marat Safin ... This one's a little tougher to call but if you saw Baghdatis playing last year (minus a tough first-round exit in the U.S. Open) you'll know he's healthy again and on top of his game. It was only two years ago when he made the final in this tournament and won over the Aussie crowd. That will help him against the much less likable Safin in this match. Safin won his last Grand Slam title here in 2005, and he'd made two finals at Melbourne before that, but in the last couple of years, the big Russian hasn't shown much heart in tough matches.

***Note: all odds are American. If they don't make sense to you, you can check out Bet365.com and use the odds converter in the top left of the page. That's where I got the odds for all these matches. They might be different at other sports books. Or there's a good free odds converter on SBRForum. Those sites aren't paying me or anything; they're just what I use.

Welcome to The Wooden Racket

OK. First blog. Here we go.

First off, although I love tennis as a sport and a source of entertainment, this blog is all about betting. I have a theory. Wanna hear it? Good. It goes like this: bookies in Vegas don't watch tennis. They don't care. They're busy watching football, basketball, baseball ... hell, anything but tennis. There's just something un-american about it.

But there's nothing un-american about making money.

That's why we bet tennis. If you take the time to get to know the players, the back-stories, the injuries, and everything else, you can beat your bookie betting on tennis. At least that's how the theory goes.

So what we'll do here is provide a little information, a lot of opinion, and most importantly -- picks for the upcoming matches. Hopefully we can all make a little cash together.

Stay tuned for second round Aussie Open picks. We'll try to make like a high-fibre diet and keep this thing regular.

Aussie, Aussie, Aussie. Oi, oi, oi!