The rain was falling in Melbourne yesterday, so the only matches played were those scheduled for covered Rod Laver and Vodafone Arenas. But what a day of tennis. Classic match after classic match. Probably the best day of tennis I've ever seen.
Federer very nearly sent the betting economy into a recession when +5000 underdog Janko Tipsarevic took him to 10 games in the fifth set. If the upset happened, Tipsarevic's new nickname would have been "Appalachian State." Blake was lucky he woke up in the third set of his match and miraculously beat Grosjean in the end. I don’t know if I’d bet Blake in his next match against Cilic (who upset Gonzo ... why oh why didn’t I bet that?) because that five-setter must have taken its toll and Cilic is a dangerous young man. Then there was the match I had money on between Baghdatis and Hewitt, which went back and forth until about 5 a.m. before Bags finally ran out of gas and cost me some coin. But you know what? It was such a good match, I can’t even feel bad about losing the money.
That 4-0 day seems long ago and far away now. I’m 5-3 for the tournament overall, but the odds are looking better today and I’m feeling confident about today’s plays. Nalbandian and Ferrero didn’t get their match in due to rain and neither did Petrova-Makarova, so they’re both scheduled to go tonight.
Let's get down to business:
Serena Williams (-280) to beat Nicole Vaidisova … I LOVE this play. This is a classic example of the crème de la crème of women’s tennis playing a second-tier contender. Vaidisova is good and she went deep in every slam last year, but she lost all three meetings with Serena. Why? Because Serena is just that much better. Nothing has changed since last year, except that Serena is in better shape and seems to be more focused. I emptied my account on this one.
Philipp Kohlschreiber (-175) to beat Jarkko Nieminen … I’d never seen Kohlschreiber before yesterday, but his win over Roddick was all I needed to see. I’m sold. This kid is a stone-cold killer. Roddick played a great match, served as well as he ever has and still lost as a BIG favorite. That match got a lot of publicity and definitely pumped up the price for his match with Nieminen, but I’ll gladly take him as a small favorite over a guy like Nieminen who doesn’t have nearly as many weapons as Roddick. I feel good about this one too.
Nikolay Davydenko (-175) to beat Mikhail Youzhny … I really wanted to go against my rule here and take the underdog, but the more I looked at it, the more I realized this was a great price for Davydenko. I liked Youzhny because he’s undefeated this year and won the Channai Open a couple of weeks ago by steamrolling none other than Rafa Nadal in the final. But in three previous meetings, Davydenko has won every time, most recently in Montreal last year. Nothing has changed since then. Davydenko is No. 4 in the world and only a year older than Youzhny. I won’t put as much down on this one than the other plays, but it does seem to be excellent value for the circumstances.
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