Toot, toot! What's that? Oh, it's just me leaning on my own horn.
The results are in and yesterday's picks went 4-0, but I'm not going to lie ... I was sweating it out through most of them. All three men's matches went five sets and we were treated to a beauty in the showcase between the Bagman and Safin. The Russian made a strong bid to make good on the first 0-2 comeback of his career, but in the fifth set, he didn't have the guts to finish the job. As usual. But a good match to watch nonetheless.
I still don't know what Baghdatis did to piss off the tournament organizers who saddled him with the worst draw of all time. After facing two former champs in the first two rounds, he's got hometown hero Lleyton Hewitt tomorrow. That's a hard road and it will probably start to take its toll on the portly Cypriot very soon.
Back to the picks. I took all favorites yesterday so to be honest, a few bad bounces and it could have been a disaster. But all's well that ends well and we've got some house money to play with -- which is a good thing because today's odds aren't exactly turning my crank.
Here we go:
Shahar Peer (+120) to beat Elena Dementieva ... Yes, it's true. I am actually taking an underdog. I don't know what the oddsmakers' deal is with Peer, but she is consistently undervalued in her matches. Doesn't anyone in Vegas realize this woman is one of the best players in the world? She beat Dementieva in straight sets in their last meeting, granted it was on clay, but in my mind it signaled the changing of the guard between these two. At 20 years old, Peer is on the way up and for Dementieva, the slow decline isn't far off. Now let's say I was at a bar looking for a little company for the evening, I'd take Dementieva in a second, but in this match I'll go with Peer.
Mikhail Youzhny (-225) to beat Ivo Karlovic ... I'm sick and tired of hearing all the experts talking about how "Dr. Ivo" is going to shock the world and tear through the field. Yes, he cuts an imposing figure at 6-foot-10 and he's got a big serve, but every time he comes to a Grand Slam event, he shits the bed. In the last three years, Karlovic never gone past the third round in a Slam and on grass or hardcourt, this is the first time he hasn't bowed out after his opening match. Until this freakshow proves otherwise, I'm staying away from him in the majors. Youzhny is coming off a title in Chennai where he beat Nadal 6-0, 6-1 in the final. You can't ignore that.
Mardy Fish (+100) to beat Jarkko Nieminen ... I was impressed with the way Fish dusted off Tommy Robredo in the second round in a match that was over so fast, you could have missed a set if you got up to make a sandwich. The American is hot, just like he was when he fought his way to the quarters of this tournament last year. Nieminen has also been dangerous lately and it's tough to go against him, but Fish seems to like playing in Melbourne and his big serve is amplified on this super-fast surface. But I'm expecting to sweat this one out too.
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4 comments:
I found this site on a post from covers and I really do like the concept. I was looking thru your picks and I do like most of them against the S. Peer pick. I have made a ton on her in the past year because she is undervalued but the only thing that scares me to take her is the fact that she has lost 2 out of 3 matches against E. Dementieva. The other thing about her is that she plays in doubles and this year she is paired up with Azarenka who I think is amazing so they have a good chance to win that event, so I dont think its a solid play. I really like the Youhzny pick because the guy has been playing unreal and I think he should be a good choice to make a run at the Aussie open. Lets share some insight and burn the books. Good luck on the blog
Mike
Thanks for the comment. I hear what you're saying about Peer, but I wouldn't worry about doubles. That is always secondary for good singles players.
And the other two losses were a while back. Don't forget Peer is only 20 years old and still improving. That said, this is an underdog pick and obviously, the match could go either way, but I still like the Isreali's chances of the upset.
what do you think about the Igor Andreev matchup against Richard Gasquet? Igor hasnt looked that sharp in the last 2 matches going 4 sets and then having to win 7-5 in his 1st 2 sets of the 2nd round. Gasquet also beat him at the Medibank more then a week ago
Gasquet is going to whoop Andreev. Gasquet loves the hard court and Andreev is really a dirt-baller. Plus Andreev seems to just put it in cruise control until the clay court season starts. I would never bet that guy at this time of year. But the price for Gasquet (-450) is too large to make it a worthwhile bet, especially against a guy that has beaten him a few times. I might parlay it with another match like maybe Gonzo (-333) or Blake (-350) looks good too. Enjoy the matches.
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