Ouch. That was a tough night. But this blog is still young and your pal Dee-Dub still has a few things to learn. Yesterday's lesson was: "Don't get cocky and start taking underdogs in the early rounds." Especially not after you made a tidy profit on small favorites the day before. Dumbass.
In my defense, I'm not taking the blame for that Fish-Nieminen match. Fish was looking good until he got a ridiculous code violation from a retarded umpire in the second set and then went into a five-alarm meltdown. Smashing rackets, screaming at umpires, completely losing his cool. And the match. Just one of those things. My pick for Peer to beat Dementieva, however, was obviously misguided and way off the mark. Peer was never in the match and she just folded like a lawn chair from the start. She won only two games in the whole match and had nearly three times as many unforced errors as winners. Brutal. What was I thinking?
My mantra for today is "small favorites". Close your eyes. Say it with me. Believe it. It is your salvation. Ohm.
Just one problem. Small faves are few and far between in tonight's draw. But we'll make the best of what we've got to work with.
Marcos Baghdatis (-162) to beat Lleyton Hewitt ... In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I was thinking Hewitt when I first saw these odds yesterday, but after yesterday's hard lesson, I have to keep saying the mantra. You gotta think like a bookie here. These are pretty similar players, only a few places difference in their ATP rankings, and aside from one previous meeting that Bags won at Wimbledon in 2006, I'd say they're about equal. Yet Hewitt, a national hero, is the underdog in his own country? They're begging you to take Hewitt. Don't fall into the trap. Rock, Chalk, Cypriot!
David Nalbandian (-260) to beat Juan Carlos Ferrero ... For a guy who's playing an opponent who beat him the last two times they met, I'd expect a nicer price on Nalbandian, but whatever. I'll still take him. It won't be a walkover by any means, but the way El Rey played at the end of last year, you've got to go with him against Ferrero. Since hooking up with his new coach, Nalbandian's serve (which was always the chink in his armor) has been waaaay better. If he could beat Federer, Djokovic and Nadal at the end of last season, I think he should be able to knock out Ferrero here.
I wish I could make more picks for all y'all (who am I kidding? Nobody's reading this) but if I follow the new rule, I can't take the youngster Miran Cilic at +200 to beat Gonzo and I can't stick with Makarova to surprise Petrova (+300) even though I'm tempted to. Sorry. Rules are rules.
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8 comments:
keep up the blog and there are some people looking at the site since I sent some of my degenerate friends over, with that said dont get discouraged we all have some great nights and some off nights-you did go 4-0 the other day which is an achievement. I was looking at a few games for todays and I think the womens side has the best bets. I know there are some heavy favorites but Venus hasnt lost to S Mirza, Then there is Kuz that absolutely owns Radwanska and dont forget about Chakvetadze who should roll over Kirilenko a public favorite.
Lets burn the books and get something going on this site!
That's just my self-depreciating sense of humor. I'm not really down about the matches. Like I said, Fish could have won that one if he kept his cool. Too bad he's such a spaz.
As for the women's stuff today, I really try to keep the bets to stuff under -300 or -400. Otherwise the risk is just too great. That's my opinion anyway. Do you play parlays? What book do you use?
I cant do parlays thru my book which is based off a website that only selected clients get, if you understand that scenario.
It seems like the lines are real top heavy as the tourney goes deeper so the books are leaving you with no choice but to take the winner at a steep price or go the other way and thats where they get the money.
I have Chakvetadze at -270 right now and then Venus William -775, Kuznetsova -525 Radwanska +425
Wow. That sounds really risky to me. All those favorites sound pretty safe, but 7-1 or even 5-1 just doesn't seem worth the risk financially. I'm not condemning it at all (I believe everyone should do what works for them) but it just seems like one upset can blow your whole bankroll -- Roddick's loss today at 6-1 is a prime example.
Oh absolutely, I wont take all three I am going to narrow it do to 2 plays and then put anywhere from 500 to 1 dime on each.. with tennis thats all I want to do is take 1 or 2 strong plays a day.
right now the leans are Chak vs Kirilenko -270 (1 Dime) and then either Williams or Kuz for a nickel
Venus will walk all over Mirza. The gap between the top 10 women and everyone else is ridiculous right now. How about Serena for -250 tomorrow vs. Viadisova? Beat her three times last year.
If I win these 2 matches tonight then I will take Serena tomorrow since she has taken the last 3 especially since the last 3 were in 2007... Thats the thing I like about tennis is if someone owns another player then nothing has changed why not go with that player. the obvious factors come into play will be age and place of the match but all these players right now are fairly young and they beat up on each other over the years.
Serena won this tourney last year when her ass was the size of a delivery truck. Now she's in shape, in her prime, and in the zone. She rolls.
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