The Slump-Buster

Here are last night’s results from Melbourne.

I looked up the word “irony” just to make sure I was right about this and it turns out that it is, in fact, ironic (but not in the Alanis Morissette sense) that my "oppo" picks from yesterday went 0-3 and if I just stuck to my guns, I would have had a huge day.

But that’s okay. The oppo pick is a tried and true method of regaining betting confidence. You see, if the picks turned out to be winners, I would have taken credit for them and felt good about myself. But even though they were wrong (and I lost a pile of cash because I actually put money on all my picks), I still feel good because my real selections were the right ones.

It’s sorta like the old slump-buster that has cured so many baseball players of their struggles at the plate throughout the years. It's not something you want to brag about but it works. I feel good. We’re in the semis, my confidence is back and I’m ready to make money again.

Here's the goods:

Maria Sharapova (-455) to beat Jelena Jankovic ... This is a steep price to pay for any player in the semifinals of a Grand Slam, but if you saw the way Sharapova made the best player in the world (Henin) look like a toddler in a haunted house, you know she's taking a trophy home with her from Melbourne. Too much power, precision and focus for Jankovic. I'd be surprised if Maria gave up a set.

Ana Ivanovic (-400) to beat Daniela Hantuchova ... Again, I don't like the price but I can't go against the new and improved Ana. She dropped the baby fat and she showed in her match against Venus that she's fit enough to win points in long rallies now. That and the best forehand in the game will be enough to send Hantuchova packing.

Rafael Nadal (-500) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (+300) ... I wouldn't bet this one with someone else's money. I like Tsonga. He is a rising star and he's playing right into the role of Cinderella that has taken so many underdogs (Gonzo, Bagdhatis, Johansson) to the Aussie Open final. That's why he's dangerous. But don't forget who he's facing here. As Youzhny said after losing to Tsonga, "I think Tsonga can play very well. I cannot say he can beat Nadal, no, but he has chances." That's why I'm staying away from this one.

Novak Djokovic (+200) to beat Roger Federer ... If you don't think it can happen, just watch this. Djokovic has only beaten Fed once in his career but he has the power, the athleticism and the court savvy to go toe-to-toe with the world No. 1 and win. It won't be easy, Federer isn't going to give anything away, but see a slight decline in Roger's game. It's tough to stay on top as long as he has and I don't see the same killer instinct in him that he used to have. I think both players are on equal footing in terms of ability, so this will come down to a battle of wills. Call me crazy, but I'll take Novak in that case.